Comments on: Recession and stock market performance

By: How not to ruin a 60/40 portfolio « The Investment Fiduciary

How not to ruin a 60/40 portfolio « The Investment Fiduciary — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 22:51:10 +0000

[...] and moved their clients’ money into cash before sh*t hit the fan. I am not one of them. Though I did see storm clouds gathering, I underestimated the severity and stuck with their original investment plans through the [...]

By: Samantha Grandison

Samantha Grandison — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 17:45:26 +0000

its a wonderful thing to do

By: Fama and French research helps save retirement portfolios « Fama French Research

Wed, 06 Jan 2010 21:21:09 +0000

By: investment-fiduciary

investment-fiduciary — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:37:40 +0000

Ray,

You made a great observation. Check our my research on this subject …

http://investment-fiduciary.com/about/dividend-to-rescue-in-a-great-depression/

However, dividend stocks are tax-disadvantaged and they usually don’t perform well in an inflationary situation.

By: V. Ray Boyett

V. Ray Boyett — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 20:53:37 +0000

I believe that dividend stocks have an important niche in anyones portfolio. Doing a study of these particular stocks from the 90″s show reasonable growth and good dividends for a select few. They have weathered two recessions and are performing as well if not better than the markets.

By: investment-scientist

investment-scientist — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 08:57:30 +0000

I wrote about these two points as well. By then it was clear this is not a garden variety recession: 1) Dividends to the rescue in a Great Depression 2) How to transfer returns from bull markets to bear markets Also, I put together a complete list of high-dividend-yield ETFs. Needless to say, we see eye to eye on this.

By: GK

GK — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 04:33:27 +0000

The only strategy that might be good now is :

1) HIgh-dividend ETFs
2) Conservative Covered calls on those same ETFs (we don’t want to risk missing the many bear-market rallies, so the covered calls employed should be very conservative).

The good news is that once this is over, we won’t have to worry about a similar situation again in our lifetimes.

By: investment-scientist

investment-scientist — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 11:01:41 +0000

I totally agree. The current downturn is turning out to be a once-in-a-hundred-year event. It is already a lot worse than anything we’ve seen since the second world war.

By: GK

GK — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 07:53:12 +0000

Yes, the current downturn blows this whole table out of the water.

There are so many tables on Investment Scientist showing how Small Value does well after recessions, after the start of bear markets, after FF Rate drops of 200 bps or more, etc.

Yet this present situation just throws all that out of the window.

By: investment-scientist

investment-scientist — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 16:51:59 +0000

James,

At the time of research, I left out the Great Depression since it was so distant and the economy was very different. In retrospect, I was wrong – the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Michael

By: James Young

James Young — Fri, 27 Feb 2009 16:49:28 +0000

Guess this one is different than all the other recessions you studied. I noticed the great depression is not in your analysis. It seems that might be a better fit.

“Taking the long view” this time would mean -40% or more returns for the year and negative returns for the past 10 years.

Frankly, I can’t see how we will get out of this with every American family owing more than $90,000 of national debt.

That said, I like your website and your research.

Jim Y.

By: richard hoult

richard hoult — Fri, 06 Feb 2009 18:02:57 +0000

thank you