The Investment Scientist

The “War” Between Russia and Ukraine Over Crimea

Posted on: March 3, 2014

【 Copy from a comment on this news: http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/russia-going-lose ]

The scary thing is how easily the American people are conned, again. All it takes is some headlines, no facts, or knowldge of the situation and the people start foaming at the mouth wanting war. Has anyone been paying attention for the last 100 wars and police actions we were conned into, started just like this. Months of intense demonazation of an imagined foe, and then surprise, the evil person does just what was warned about… This classic Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran, Viet Nam, dozens of S.American foes that no one even knew about yet started foaming at the mouth on cue.

First off, the months of propaganda bashing Russia was a tell tale sign that something was going to be tried by the west. How many on this forum really have a clue what this is about? Not many apparently. The legitimate Ukraine government sought assistance in the form of loans. There were two offers, one by the EU and one by Russia. The EU offer had many strings attached that would make Ukraine another Greece, subject to crippling forced austerity cuts but requirements to pay foreign banks off before supporting citizen services such as the post office and schools. In the long list of demands was that no other trade agreements except with the EU was permitted. Most of Ukraine’s trade is with Russia. Another provision for the 800m eruo loan was tha the Ukraine military world be subject to NATO control, and US/NATO base building would not be subject to Ukraine approval. Those were the sort of demands made, but 700 pages of them.

On the other side, was an offer from Russia which offered the $14Billion requested by Ukraine with no strings and a proposal for remaining neutral with trade agreements with both the EU and Russia. Any reading of the two proposals would have a rational person reject the heavy handed, US approved, proposal. It was much too small, would end Ukraine’s long ehtnic and cultural connection with Russia and 26,000,000 Ukrainian’s family and cultural preference.  The majority of Ukrainians were happy with the decision to reject the EU demands. The minority from western Ukraine protested with peaceul protests without incidence for months(there have been peaceful protests every day for all sorts of issues for years om Kiev’s main street, with special camping areas along the street set aside for 24 hour a day protests). There were two factions who disagreed with each other protesting. Most of those, who together were still a minority) conducted protests for several months. Things turned bad when a third faction entered the affair. It was western backed and most said, were working with the US, but they were fringe radical group of Ultra-Nationalists who brought a new element to the protests; guns and firebombs. Several police were shot and killed but there was little crackdown. Evenutally the city center was parallzyed with government buildings and police capture or burned by the radicals. The confrontations became more violent until the moderate factions agreed to a cooling off period and arrested, the most violent and destructive would be released from jail. The next morning the radical armed with snipers shot and killed the first 3 police they saw as the sun came up. They captured 50 police and proclaimed they would execute them. That was the end of the peaceful protests. The police were ordered to shut down the violence. 18 police were killed and 78 of the radicals were killed.

That was the background of the current situation. They stormed the legislature and set up a new government, voted out the president and his administration. Radicals gave speeches that proclaimed that the majority, the Russian speakers and those with Russian heritage would be stripped of citizenship before a new election would be held in May. Others claimed that Russian speakers would have their property seized. That is 26,000,000 Ukrainians suddenly becoming stateless in their own country.  2/3rds of the oblasts(states) rejected the coup and demanded that democracy be returned. The autonomous region of Crimea’s pariament voted to not recognize the coup as having authority over them. Russia had a longer term lease on its naval base in Sevastopol with security details there. The parliament requested security from the troops there in their city and received assurances that the Russian troops would help resist the coup regime taking over the Crimea area.

So we have headlines and Obama claiming it is an invasion, but the troops were already there based on long standing treaties. By backing the coup against the people, the US is forcing a civil war  and world economic disaster.  There has been no invasion, there is no general mobilization of the country because most of the regional governments do not recongnize the coup governmenet.  There are millions of Ukrainians who are willing to fight to return their democracy and the US is posturing to defeat them.  This is even more threatening than Viet Nam was, where the US also interferred with popular will.

The really scare part of this is how gulible we Americans are when we all have decades of proof that war of convenience never help the people and always follow the same pattern of intense demonization for the run up to a conflict and few if any question it. It is so predictable. Can anyone name all the wars and occupations that have started this way and turned out to be very different than claimed? Not one minute of my 64 years has the US been at peace, there is always some evil person or society to crush, despite all the evidence. It took only a couple weeks to turn public opinion to war when the cons wanted to invade Afghanistan and again in Iraq, and we all know it was all a lie then. Anyone who dared question it was considered the enemy, careers destroyed, livelihood removed, just for asking “why”.   It is happening again but if the US really does enter a war in support of the coup, it is not going to be such a cake walk as how Iraq and Afghanistan was portrayed. The patriotic Ukrainians and Russians are more capable and resourceful. They have the threat to shipping which could cripple the US overnight. Few container ships are US flagged so have no loyalty and can’t be commandered to transport goods into or out of US ports if there is a hint of sub strikes. The crash of the financial markets will make 2008 look like a minor correction. Russia has already demonstrated that it can intrecept and decrypt secure phones and data, or stop data transmission anywhere in the world.  Remember the recent recording of the State department official talking about their installing a friendly government into Kiev a few weeks ago. Yes it was embarassing but being released showed the US how much Russia had access to secret government communications. They apparently wanted the world to know how much the US was plotting the coup, well before it actually happened.

No, this one is not going to be as “easy” as invading a technically backward country like Iraq, all because the US citizens are so easily and repeatedly conned into wars with people they known nothing about.

5 Responses to "The “War” Between Russia and Ukraine Over Crimea"

Okay, this post cries out for “citation needed”. Who reported the information contained here? Reputable news source or random blogger who never set foot on the same continent as the Ukraine? You say you copied this from a comment on a web site- so who wrote it? What is that person’s agenda or affiliation? Is there a conflict of interest? I may take your word for some financial info, but not political or war news.

Jerry,

These are great question you asked. I provided the link to the original news report and the comment. The commenter used the handle Am_Expat, presumably he is an American living abroad.

Now I would say we should treat any reports from the main stream media with the same rigor, but most people don’t. I personally like to check MSNBC vs Foxnews. You would be surprised how the same fact can be presented totally differently, leading to totally opposite conclusions.

On the Ukraine crisis, I don’t just read what’s being reported here in the US, I also checked Russia sources and independent sources. Here is what I can reasonable conclude.

The (or some) protesters were armed and gun battle broke out between them and police. Who started the violence really depends on which media source.

Many protesters are killed, the police suffered pretty large casualty as well. In the end, it appears the police decided they have no dog in this political fight and they just withdrew unexpectedly.

Suddenly without police protection, the president escaped to eastern Ukraine (his power base.) The protesters occupied the Parliament and the Parliament dismissed the president – not sure if they have a quorum – but under Ukraine constitution, the Parliament can not dismiss a president like that. They have to go through months of impeachment process, just like in the US. So a democratically elected president was overthrown extra-constitutionally and the US is all in supporting it because he is from pro-Russian eastern Ukraine? On top the that, the mainstream media totally overlooked some important facts. If the same things happened to a pro-US president or King, would the media not report it as a coup?

That’s the reason I repost this comment. Not that I fact checked everything he said, not that I can vouch for him, just to provoke some thoughts.

Lastly, I want to add my observation as a Chinese American who live in both countries. In China, the communist party makes it very clear the media is the party’s voice 党的喉舌 to lead the thinking of the mass 舆论导向. People understand that and they are naturally skeptical of what’s reported and they would seek foreign sources if they want to know more.

Here in the US, we do have constitutionally guaranteed freedom of press, people are far less skeptical of what’s being reported. On top of that, politicians are masterful in manipulating the press – if they are not, they won’t rise to the top – and the press sometimes suffers from group think. This is a combination that could have disastrous consequence.

Jerry,

Check this. Why this is not being reported at all? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEgJ0oo3OA8

Michael

The latest revelation is that snipers were hired to kill both policemen and protesters. I wonder why the media here in the US don’t report that.

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Author

Michael Zhuang is principal of MZ Capital, a fee-only independent advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is also a regular contributor to Morningstar Advisor and Physicians Practice. To explore a long-term wealth advisory relationship, schedule a discovery meeting (phone call) with him.



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