Archive for the ‘Security Selection & Market Timing’ Category
How Not to Survive in a Flat Market
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: December 31, 2011
Today is the last trading day of 2011. The S&P 500 closed at 1257, exactly the same close as in 2010! So, if your goal is wealth preservation, the market just did it for you. Or did it? From January to April, the market staged a four-month rally of 8.5% to peak at 1364 on [...]
How to Capture 100% of Mutual Fund Returns
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: December 13, 2011
In my previous article, “The perils of chasing hot fund managers,” I showed that the average investor in a mutual fund run by “star” manager Bill Miller would be better off buying and holding an S&P 500 index fund. There is only one problem. Most index fund investors are not immune to the buy high [...]
Staying in Your Seat
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: November 18, 2011
[Guest post by Tom Warburton] Who could forget the recent World’s Series? Man, was that sixth game otherworldly or what! The day after the sixth game a buddy wandered in – remorseful that he, while watching the Cards vs Rangers, had gotten up out of his seat to go out in his backyard with his [...]
Standard & Poor’s Downgrade Spree Hits Google
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: August 17, 2011
Not satisfied with its downgrading of U.S. Treasury Debt and Fannie Mae, today S&P downgraded Google’s stock from “Buy” to “Sell,” sending GOOG tumbling by 3.3%. In case you don’t remember, yesterday Google announced that it would purchase Motorola Mobility for a whopping $12.5 billion in cash – a decision that prompted S&P’s downgrade of [...]
How Often Do Market Corrections Happen?
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: August 5, 2011
As of yesterday, the market had dropped more than 10% from its recent peak on 5/2. Many investors are very concerned. I am too. Whenever I find my emotions are unsettled, I study historical data. That has always given me a perspective unavailable from the tick-by-tick reporting of the real-time financial media. The following table [...]
Harvard Endowment on US Equity & Emerging Markets
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: July 27, 2011
I asked my PhD analyst John Want to pull the Harvard Endowment 13F filing for the first quarter of 2011 and find out what has changed sinceour last examination three months ago. From the table of the top 15 holdings that is attached, we can see three changes: 1. The iShare S&P 500 Index ETF is [...]
Why Asset Class Diversification is Superior
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: July 6, 2011
Recently, I came across a 20 Year Periodic Return Table prepared by Black Rock. I want to share this with you since this table illustrates the investment principles I have been emphasizing: 1) asset class diversification; 2) disciplined rebalancing; and 3) small value tilt. Today’s focus is on 1); the other two points will be [...]
The Unstoppable March of the Efficient Market
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: January 22, 2011
I turned $300k into $2mm in six month. Here is what happened. After the Enron debacle in 2002, Congress passed the Sarbanes-Oxley Act. One obscure clause in the act required company insiders to report their insider trades electronically within a day. The reports would go into a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) database accessible to [...]
A New Year Resolution for Investors
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: December 28, 2010
[Guest Post by Tom Warburton] How’s this for a New Year’s Resolution – repeat after me – I Resolve That I Will Abandon Personal Stock Picking And I Will Not Permit That Foolishness To Be Foisted Upon Me By Stock Brokers, Money Managers Or Financial Advisors. New evidence shows up every day suggesting that it [...]
Jim Cramer’s top tech stocks for 2010
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: January 9, 2010
Never underestimate what a bull market could do to Jim Cramer. After shying from making any top picks for 2009, presumably because he didn’t see any stocks worthy of buying at the beginning of 2009, he is back to his own game with a vengeance this year. We’ll see if his 2010 picks below will [...]
How not to ruin a 60/40 portfolio
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: January 6, 2010
This past Christmas, I had the distinct pleasure of calling several of my clients in retirement and telling them their portfolios are back to their pre-crisis level and their financial freedom is safe and sound. Their portfolios are variations of the so-called 60/40 portfolio – about 60% in equity-like investments and 40% in bond-like ones. [...]
Third quarter changes in Harvard Endowment public equity portfolio
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: November 17, 2009
Harvard University Endowment significantly increased its holding of Market Vector Russia, iShare Mexico and iPath India in third quarter of 2009. Table: Top 10 holdings in Harvard University Endowment’s public portfolio Rank Names 9/30/09 (x1000sh) 6/30/09 (x1000sh) Change 1 iShares E. Mkt 10298 9712 +586 2 iShares Brazil 3355 3294 +61 3 iShares China 4962 [...]
What Warren Buffet has to say about market forecasts
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: November 11, 2009
Being a financial advisor, I get asked to forecast the market all the time. I notice most other financial advisors would regurgitate the morning financial news and look really smart and up-to-date. I felt like I am the only one in my profession who doesn’t know what the market is going to do in the [...]
A story Technical Analysts won’t tell you
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: November 9, 2009
This is a story shared with me by Larry Swedroe … In 1959 Harry Roberts, of the University of Chicago, had a computer generate a series of random numbers that would have a distribution matching the average weekly price change of the average stock (about 2 percent). Since the numbers were randomly generated, there was [...]
In the mind of an investor
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: August 31, 2009
Found this chart on digg.com … don’t know who to give credit to. Whoever drew this is brilliant.
Top ten holdings in Harvard Endowment’s public equity portfolio
Posted by: Michael Zhuang on: August 18, 2009
Harvard University Endowment significantly increased its holding of iShare S. Korea, iShare Taiwan and iPath India in second quarter of 2009. Table: Top 10 holdings in Harvard University Endowment’s public portfolio Rank Names 3/31/09 (x1000sh) 6/30/09 (x1000sh) Change 1 iShares E. Mkt 8276 9712 +1436 2 iShares Brazil 3170 3294 +124 3 iShares China 3162 [...]
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