On the other hand you have one of the most aggressive stock market rallies in history, traversing a distance that usually takes years to cover in a matter of months, putting some averages within spitting distance of there prior bubble peaks.

Does that make sense? Of course not. But its just one more example of the current reality. There are few values at current levels. All is momentum and momentum creates its own perception of value. Markets can be driven further in either direction than anyone thinks possible.

The problem is that prices are driven so far out of line with value and people like yourself won’t say enough! Just like they justified NASD and housing. Everyone is buying simply because the prices are going up.

Another bubble has clearly been blown and few will say anything as we are lined up again for slaughter. When, where, who knows? You obviously have some knowledge of market history, why won’t you speak up?

Surely I am listening, otherwise I wouldn’t be replaying to you.

One thing that we can both agree is that, the mass can collectively be wrong. I certainly don’t object to someone suggesting the market should be in 3,800 or 38,000 instead. What I do object to is someone claiming those as forecasts, meaning that the market WILL go to that level, and by buying his forecasts, you can make money.

What i pointed out is for you to make money, the mass has to be brain-dead now, and regain their collective intelligence in the time frame the forecaster prescribes and thus drive the market to its proper value. Don’t you think that’s very unlikely to happen?

I said the comment you made that “all the other participants who collectively think the market should be at 10,300 must be brain dead” so therefore anyone who thinks otherwise must be wrong is a patently false idea that the examples I just gave should have proven to you in and of themselves.

Do you not remember the absurd comments of Greenspan? ” the collective wisdom of the market says NASD belongs at 5k, who are we to argue”

Do you not remember the stupid notion to justify $1m tract homes to unqualified buyers that “houses never go down in value”

Dow 3800 may or may not be wrong. Nobody knows. Thats one mans forecast. My point is that the masses could be braindead about valuing the market at 10,300. Just because the participants have driven it there doesn’t make it ridiculous for one man to suggest it doesn’t belong there.

Thats what i was saying…………but you are not listening.

Did Dent not predict Dow 35,000 in early 2000 and 3,800 early last year? The collective wisdom of the mass can be wrong, but there is no evidence yet that any one person can be consistently smarter than that collective wisdom of the mass. Then again, who am to say you can’t believe otherwise. Maybe you want to live in North Korea where they REALLY believe one man is smarter than the rest combined.

No sir. They are brain dead, as are you apparently.

Michael

If demographics is all that matters, why you should consider the impact of government interference? In fact you asked the right question, the world is too complicated and way to unpredictable to be predicted from a single lense.

Michael

Great point Jay made about the future of the Dow if the Governments of the world had not interfered. If interference had not happened would Dent then be the crazy man you are trying to portray?

I am cautious of advice and commentary that is as radical as the opinion they are commenting on.

Given your views on efficient markets, I would assume you disagree with the massive monetary and fiscal stimuli undertaken by governments around the world, correct? We can only be postponing an inevitable adjustment in the economy, I would assume would be the view of the Chicago School. Had the US government not stepped in with $4.4 trillion of support to various markets, do you think we’d be closer to 3,800 than 10,000? Why was this unprecedented level of support for the market necessary?

I do agree Mr. Market doesn’t always get it right. However, ex ante it is extremely hard to tell when the market is right and when it is wrong. Those who claim otherwise are selling illusions. (Ex post, we the benefit of hindsight, it looks obvious. )

Another point I want to make is, Dent was predicting Dow 40000 at the peak of the bubble in early 2000 and Dow 3800 at the bottom of the market last March. If Mr. Market was crazy at those times, Mr. Dent was undoubtedly crazier.

I’m not sure if Dent is correct or not, but this kind of reasoning is suspect. The Nikkei was once at 40,000 and the Nasdaq was at 5,000 ten years ago. Oil was $147 a mere 18 months ago and crashed all the way to $36 in a matter of months. Which view was the brain-dead one?

Mr. Market doesn’t always get it right. I think that, at least, would be an obvious lesson to draw from this crisis.

I can assume you, the doctor who live modestly is much more wealthy than the doctor who has 4 Ferraries. Many doctors seek instant gratification after long years of med school and residency, they bought things they couldn’t afford. That’s why Thomas Stanley says they are the least wealthy among all high-income professions.