I wrote this article in early December 2008. Amazingly, it is one of the least read in my blog. Had someone read it and followed it, he would have earned 10% return so far in 2009.

– Michael Zhuang 3/10/2009

At the moment of writing this, SPY, the exchange traded fund (ETF) for the S&P 500 index, is trading at $85.95 and the near at-the-money call option (with strike 86 and only eight days until expiration) is trading at $3.45! (A call option is the right to buy the underlying stock at the strike price. At-the-money means the option strike price is equal to the price of the underlying stock.)

The at-the-money call premium is a full 4% of the underlying index price! Historically, that number has been in the 1% to 2% range.

What does 4% premium imply?