Archive for the ‘Asset Classes & Allocation’ Category
The Crypto Crash
Posted on: February 8, 2022
Yesterday in a client progress meeting, the client asked me a question: “What do you think of crypto?” I usually get this question either when cryptos are rallying or crashing. As you may know, over the last three months, most cryptos have lost 50% of their value. In fact, I more or less alluded to this in my earlier newsletter. I wrote that in a Fed tightening cycle, the vanguard market will fall first. Decades ago, the vanguard market used to be the emerging market, now it’s the crypto market.
So what do I think of crypto? I have asked myself the same question, read a lot of books and white papers about it, and even took a full-length MIT class on crypto taught by Gary Gansler, who is now the SEC chairman. I have a good understanding of the technical aspect of cryptos, but I still can’t figure out the economic rationale of their existence and their sky-high valuations.
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Are There Rebalance Bonuses?
Posted on: February 24, 2014
Professor Kenneth French
Last month I did a study to understand why equally weighted the S&P 500 index RSP has outperformed value weighted S&P 500 index SPY by almost 3% a year since its inception. My conclusion is that it’s mostly due to Fama French risk factor loading.
However, my research also found after removing the effect of risk factors, RSP has a slight alpha advantage over SPY. I conjecture this alpha advantage is due to the fact that RSP requires annual rebalancing and SPY does not. In other word, this could be the so-called “rebalance bonus.”
To test its robustness, I extended my study to six pair of Fama French “indices.”
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10. P2P Lending: A New Asset Class?
9. A Lesson From a Client: Celebrity Business Gone Bad
8. The High Cost of Fee-Based Financial Advisors
7. How Often Do Market Corrections Happen?
6. Captive Insurance: A Business Owner’s Heaven?
5. How I Helped a Client Save $100k in One Meeting
4. Variable Annuity Fees You Don’t Know You are Paying
2. Be Careful When Buying a Condo as a Rental Property
1. Profit from Harry Dent’s Prediction? Think Again
Also see Top Ten in July.
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1. ThinkAdvisor highlighted a Maryland study which showed that states which pay the highest fees to Wall Street (for managing pensions) have the lowest returns. That says it all about Wall Street. No wonder Rick Ferri wants you to steer clear of actively managed funds.
2. Reuters Money reported how Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) can be used as retirement savings accounts. This information is especially useful for small business owners and self-employed individuals who tend to neglect their retirement savings and face high deductibility in their health insurance. Here is the garden variety of ways they can save for retirement.
3. DIY Investor Robert Wasilewski encountered a bear while hiking. He survived to write about it, but he mused that the same reactions that kept him in the gene pool will surely “eliminate you from the investment pool.”
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P2P Lending: A New Asset Class?
Posted on: July 27, 2013
P2P Lending
Last night I was “wasting” time on Google+, when I stumbled upon Joe Udo’s blog where he had written about how he made an 11.3% annualized return with P2P lending. The next thing I knew, it was past midnight and I just had spent three hours eyeballs deep in the subject.
Let me first tell you what P2P lending is. P2P stands for person-to-person or peer-to-peer. P2P lending is the practice of lending to strangers, enabled by technology and the web.
The two leading companies in this arena are LendingClub and Prosper. Between the two of them, they’ve enabled nearly $2 billion of lending between investors and borrowers. However, that still pales to the total US consumer credit of $1 trillion.
I am super excited about P2P lending! Let me tell you why.
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Rebalancing your portfolio
Recently, I visited a prospective client in New Jersey. He is currently a client with Fisher Investments, and his advisor told him never to rebalance since that involves market timing.
I have to hand it to this financial advisor for recognizing that market timing is an unproductive endeavor, but he is so wrong about rebalancing that I am compelled to write this article.
Rebalancing is not a market timing activity, it is calendar-driven or condition-driven. For instance, you may decide that you will rebalance your portfolio on January 1st of each year or whenever an asset class allocation is off by 20%.
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Is this your fund manager?
Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary Jo White supports a new rule that would allow hedge funds to market directly to the public. I think that’s a fantastic idea. Let me explain why.
Between 1998 and 2010, hedge fund managers earned “only” $379 billion in fees. Do you know how much they made for investors?
Before you answer that question, you should be aware that one-third of hedge fund money is channeled through funds of funds. Their managers need their cut too. Between 1998 and 2010, their take was about $61 billion.
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New York Stock Exchange
The S&P 500 closed the first quarter at a record high. Should that worry investors? The short answer is, No.
When the market was 30% below the high three years ago, I did some research. I categorized all market conditions into:
1. Breaking a new high.
2. Less than 10% below historical high.
3. Between 10% and 20% below historical high.
4. Between 20% and 30% below historical high.
5. Between 30% and 40% below historical high.
6. More than 40% below historical high.
Then I calculated the one year forward returns of the six conditions.
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Oil and Gas Investment Scam
In the last month alone, I’ve gotten calls from two clients asking me if they should invest in tax advantaged oil and gas investments being pitched to them? Both of these clients are physicians.
The pitch is that oil and gas investments are like IRA accounts, but without the contribution limit. Whatever amount you invest can be written off right away.
The pitch is quite alluring to high-income professionals like physicians who are facing higher taxation. But it sounds too good to be true, so I did a study.
It turns out what is being pitched as “tax advantaged” is in fact the riskiest part of an oil and gas investment.
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Like Odysseus, automatic investments help investors avoid the Siren call of market timing
We call it stupid if someone takes a $55k job, even if he is offered the same job at $100k.
We call it market-timing when the same thing happens in the stock market. The long-term average annual market return is 10%, but the long-term average annual investor return is only about 5.5%. This is documented both by Dalbar’s study titled “Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior” and Morningstar’s research on fund returns and investor returns.
How could this possibly happen?
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Here is a selection of the best wealth management articles around the web for September:
5 reasons your portfolio is too complicated, by Kyle Bumpus
Why analysts are scratching their heads over QE3, by Robert Wasilewski
Under the radar bill could benefit fiduciary rule making, by FI360
Is rebalancing market timing?, by Mike Piper
Choosing a mutual fund – Avoid these 6 mistakes, by Roger Wohlner
Fidelity’s new retirement saving guidelines, by Barbara Friedberg
Can I consistently outperform the market? by Ken Faulkenberry
Dividend reinvestment plans (RIPS) and their benefits, by Dave Scott
Questions to ask when picking a financial advisor, by Carl Richards
Get my white paper: The Informed Investor: 5 Key Concepts for Financial Success.
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Why you should avoid hedge funds
Posted on: August 15, 2012
Hedge fund managers take their cut
There is a new book about the hedge fund “industry” by former insider Simon Lack. Its title says it all – The Hedge Fund Mirage – The Lesson of Big Money and Why It’s Too Good To Be True.
Not everybody has time to read books like this, but if you are ever approached by a hedge fund peddler – I get calls every week about an amazing alternative investment opportunity – at least look at the table below before you part with your money.
Between 1998 and 2010, hedge fund fees totaled $440 billion versus $9 billion total profits for investors.
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Is value investing still valid?
Posted on: August 10, 2012
New York Stock Exchange
Value investing as an investment discipline was pioneered by Ben Graham and is practiced by Warren Buffett. It has a long history of data collection and many rigorous studies done in the most prestigious research universities.
The idea of value investing is that undervalued stocks will ultimately outperform overvalued stocks in aggregate.
There are four simple measures one can use to determine if a stock is relatively undervalued or overvalued….
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Portfolio Rebalancing Returns
Posted on: August 5, 2011
Asset Class Rebalance
In one of my previous posts, I showed how diversification across asset classes is superior to momentum and contrarian strategies. Today, I am going to show how disciplined rebalancing adds to returns. I will first demonstrate this using a stylized example and then through historical returns.
An example of two asset classes
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MZ Capital 40/60 Portfolio Model
This report shows the construct and performance of a 40/60 model portfolio.
Asset Classes and Fund Selection
There are six asset classes in this portfolio model. The asset allocation is implemented using DFA funds, as shown in the table 1. I explained why DFA funds are better than Vanguard funds here.
| Table 1: Asset Class Funds | ||
| Asset Class | Percentage | Funds |
| US Equity | 10% | DFFVX – US Targeted Value Fund |
| International Equity | 10% | DISVX – International Small Cap Value Fund |
| Emerging Markets | 10% | DFEVX – Emerging Market Value Fund |
| REIT | 10% | DFREX – Real Estate Securities Fund |
| TIPS | 20% | DIPSX – Inflation-Protected Securities Fund |
| Treasuries | 20% | DFIHX – Short-Term Treasuries Fund |
| Muni Bonds | 20% | DFSMX – Short-Term Muni-Bond Fund |
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Recently, I came across a 20 Year Periodic Return Table prepared by Black Rock. I want to share this with you since this table illustrates the investment principles I have been emphasizing: 1) asset class diversification; 2) disciplined rebalancing; and 3) small value tilt. Today’s focus is on 1); the other two points will be discussed in future articles.
20 Year Asset Class Returns
The Investment Scientist 