The Investment Scientist

Archive for October 2009

Crystal Ball“When the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into a ditch.” – Old Proverb.

In July 2007, I went to an event where the keynote speaker was a former Federal Reserve Board governor who had worked with Alan Greenspan for many years.

I had had a hunch since early 2006 that the housing bubble would end badly. However, the market had proven me wrong month after month. Bewildered, I felt an expert of that caliber could help prove or disprove my hunch once and for all.

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clown“It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” – Shakespeare

Yesterday, the Dow passed 10,000 again. Predictably, the press kicked up a big storm about it.

Even a relatively unknown like me got a call from a major newspaper asking me to comment whether this was a sign that the market would keep going up. I really struggled to answer. I knew that if I could spin a good story, the reporter would come back to me for more and more comments. Pretty soon, I would look like a stock market guru to my clients and prospects. This would surely be a win-win for me and the newspaper – if only I could bring myself to pretend.

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Michael Zhuang is principal of MZ Capital, a fee-only independent advisory firm based in Washington, DC.


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