Archive for the ‘Economics & Markets’ Category
I asked my assistant to do an updated stock market seasonality study.
The data we used was the S&P 500 index from 1927 which we found in Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller’s database.
We assumed that at the beginning of each year we invested $1 in the index, and we observed how the investment fluctuated over the year. Then we took the average over three different periods of time: the last 20 years, the last 50 years, and the last 86 years.
Here is the chart we got: Read the rest of this entry »
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【 Copy from a comment on this news: http://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/russia-going-lose ]
The scary thing is how easily the American people are conned, again. All it takes is some headlines, no facts, or knowldge of the situation and the people start foaming at the mouth wanting war. Has anyone been paying attention for the last 100 wars and police actions we were conned into, started just like this. Months of intense demonazation of an imagined foe, and then surprise, the evil person does just what was warned about… This classic Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran, Viet Nam, dozens of S.American foes that no one even knew about yet started foaming at the mouth on cue.
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According to Nobel Laureate Eugene Fama, there are three major risk premiums.
1. Equity premium is the additional “wage” one can earn from taking stock market risk over not taking stock market risk.
2. Small cap premium is the additional “wage” one can earn from taking small company risk over taking large company risk.
3. Value premium is the additional “wage” one can earn from taking non-growing company risk over taking growing company risk.
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In the arena of academic finance, the debate over whether a rebalancing “bonus” exists or not has become somewhat of a religion!
Those who are ardent believers of an efficient market such as Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama usually believe all returns should be the result of taking risk and that simple actions like rebalancing periodically should not produce additional returns.
Those who believe the market is emotion-driven, such as Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller, believe in a rebalancing “bonus”. Since the market is either over-priced or under-priced from time to time, rebalancing allows us to take advantage of this market mispricing.
The return differential of RSP vs SPY provides an excellent control experiment to test whether this illustrious rebalancing “bonus” actually exists. SPY and RSP invest in the same 500 largest stocks of the US. SPY being a cap-weighted fund, does not require rebalancing, while RSP being a equally weighted fund requires periodic rebalancing.
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Since its inception on March 9, 2003, RSP has returned 193%. At the same time, SPY has only returned 97%. This is extremely puzzling as both RSP and SPY hold the same S&P 500 stocks.The only difference is that SPY is a cap-weighted fund and RSP is an equally-weighted one. This begs the question, is RSP’s outperformance normal; and more importantly, is it likely to continue?
To answer the question I asked my intern Nahae Kim to run a regression based on the Nobel Prize winning Fama-French Three Factor Model.
R(x) – rf = alpha + beta1*(Rmkt – rf) + beta2*SML + beta3*HML
Where R(x) is the return of the selected fund, x being either RSP or SPY, alpha is the “skill” of the fund, beta1 is the market risk loading, beta2 is the small cap risk loading and beta3 is the value risk loading.
Here is what I got from the two regressions.
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It is exceedingly difficult for mutual funds to beat market indexes. For the past decade, Standard and Poor’s has methodologically documented returns by mutual funds and what they found is something those fund managers do not want you to know: the majority of mutual funds under-performed their respective indexes literally every single time.
Here is an infographic published by MoneySense, a Canadian financial magazine, that shows 90% of Canadian money managers under-performed the market index in 2012; I can assure you that US money managers are doing no better.
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Obamacare: Sh*t Hits Fan
Posted on: November 13, 2013
Today I sat down with a bunch of professionals for our quarterly wealth management meeting. As the talks turned toward the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, I realized the mal-functioning website is the least of its problems.
In our group there is a professional, Andrea, who specializes in helping small to mid-sized businesses procure group health insurance. Andrea said insurance companies are cancelling old plans and giving their customers “upgraded” plans that cost more and provide less benefits.
This hasn’t just been happening in isolated cases, but is rather wide-spread. Why? For one, the ACA has many mandates, such as covering reproductive health. So if a man’s insurance plan does not cover a pap smear, he just lost his plan! OK, I made this up for comedy, but Andrea did mention a 55 year old woman losing her plan because it did not have maternity benefits.
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Today I went to listen to Professor Jing of Renmin University speaking about US – China relations. The last time I went to listen to the same subject, it was Professor Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago speaking. His theory predicts that the US and China will come into conflict inevitably. I was curious to hear a Chinese perspective.
When I told Professor Jing about Dr. Mearsheimer’s theory and prediction, I was surprised to learn that the two professors are friends. In fact, Dr. Mearsheimer teaches at Dr. Jing’s Renmin University as a visiting scholar.
Dr. Jing does not agree with Professor Mearsheimer’s theory and prediction.
He does however agree that the rivalry between China and the US will intensify in coming years. In his words, “This is structural.” No matter how hard the leaders of the two nations try, the most powerful nation on earth and the second most powerful will always be suspicious of each other.
However, Professor Jing believes this rivalry need not result in open conflict. “Both the US and China are nuclear states. Should war break out between us, only cockroaches will survive.”
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Two weeks ago, I wrote about these two Nobel Prize winners and how their respective economic research has shaped my investment practice.One very very sharp reader of my blog sent an email to me, and here is what it said:
Aren’t these 2 philosophies opposites of each other? If the market prices correctly based on all available information, how can the stock price be different from the expected dividend? Aren’t these 2 prize winning economists speaking in opposites?
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As far as investment philosophy is concerned, I am solidly in the camp of Nobel Prize winner Eugene Fama and Vanguard founder Jack Bogle. They both believe that the market is by and large efficient, and there is no point in picking stocks.
Most of my money is in broad-based passively managed asset class funds, but I do set aside 5% just to have some fun with and right now I only have three stocks in my fun account.
Safeway
I bought SWY last November after going to the Chicago Booth Entrepreneur Advisory Meeting. From the meeting, I learned that big retailers routinely write off their inventory at a huge loss. The reason being that they can not control demands as they have little information about the needs of the individual consumer, though they can usually make a rough guess on aggregate needs.
I noticed my wife had been shopping at Safeway more and more. After a little digging, I found out Safeway had set up a technology system to track each individual’s needs and price sensitivities. Then it can make targeted offers to shoppers like my wife that unfailingly brought her back over and over. I recalled my earlier meeting and realized they would save tons of money just from better inventory management.
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It really caught me by surprise when Eugene Fama, the newly minted Nobel laureate in Economics said: “It doesn’t matter that much.” when speaking about investing outside of the US.
OK sure, I can understand his point. Why invest outside of the US when the US markets already account of 40% of world capitalization? “The U.S. market is so well-diversified already that combining it with global markets doesn’t really matter,” so said Fama.
However, I think it actually does matter ….
Proportionally, the US market is getting smaller. Right after the second world war, the US market accounted for 70% of world capitalization, now it only accounts for 40%. For a country that boasts only 5% of of the world’s population, this is still exceptionally high.
For the foreseeable future, there are better than even odds that the combined markets outside of the US will grow faster than the US market will do alone. Why forego those opportunities?
The diversification benefit you’d get is certainly not negligible either. During the so-called ‘lost decade’ of 2000 to 2009, the US market, as measured by the S&P 500, had a net loss of 9.1%, while international developed markets went up by an anemic 12.4%, but emerging markets went up by a whopping 154.3%.
It would have made a bog difference if you have a piece of emerging markets in your portfolio.
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Will China Rise Peacefully?
Posted on: October 20, 2013
Two days ago I went to listen to a geopolitical lecture given by Professor Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago.
Professor Mearsheimer is a geopolitical realist. He has an intriguing theory about global political order which states that there is a 75% chance that the US and China will come into conflict.
I care about this subject because, being a Chinese American, I know that my life would not be too pleasant should that come to pass.
Professor Mearsheimer’s theory is based on the assumption that the global order is anarchic, by that he means there is no higher authority above states, and that each state will fight for a better position in the order.
The US, now being number 1, is not going to willingly give up the top spot, and China, if given the opportunity, is not going to settle for second best.
Professor Mearsheimer explains how the US became #1 in the first place:
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I jumped out of my chair in delight when I learned that Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller had won this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics. These are two economists that greatly influenced my investment philosophy and their works have been an integral part of how I help my clients build and preserve wealth.
Let me explain their contributions:
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When I was in California, I had a very intelligent debate with a doctor. He mentioned that in 2012, the US took in $2.5T in revenue and spent $3.6T in government expenditures.
He accurately pointed out, “If I spent like that, I would be bankrupt in a few years.” He believes so strongly that the US is going the way of national bankruptcy that he has moved substantial amounts of his money overseas and has invested a great deal in gold.
I happen to believe that gold is the most unproductive of assets, since it does not generate dividends or interest and it actually costs money for upkeep in a safe in a Singapore bank.
On top of that, by throwing so much money into gold, one could over prepare for a disaster that is very unlikely to happen and thereby miss out on all the opportunities to grow wealth in this country.
But I still need to explain why the US won’t go bankrupt anytime soon. Here are two explanations:
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Using the closing price prior to the day of government shutdown as a base line, he found on average, the market rose 0.97% in one month, 2.38% in three months and 13.42% in a year.
If we isolate the 5 most severe shutdowns that lasted more than 10 days, the picture is a bit worse, but not by much. On average the market fell 4.19% in one month, fell .18% in three months and rose 9.63% in a year.
These historical precedents confirm my gut feeling that a government shutdown is really no big deal, as far as the market is concerned.
More worrisome is the upcoming debt ceiling fight. There is no precedent of US default to guide my outlook on this, but the longer the government shutdown lasts, the deeper heels get dug in by both parties and the more likely a default. Nevertheless, I’m still thinking that will also be a storm in a tea cup.
The bottom line is these are issues beyond our control, there is no point worrying about them. If worst comes to worst (ie default,) and the market should drop 20%. That’s actually great because then we can buy shares at a discount!
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1. “The gross revenues for the financial services industry in 2010 were $1.129 trillion. That year, total US financial assets stood at $50.38 trillion, meaning that the financial services industry as a whole is skimming 2.25% a year out of everyone’s wealth.” This is an excerpt from a post on Wealthcare Capital entitled “Investment Expenses – The Other Millionaire You Make.” How about I help you cut those expenses by half?
2. Shocking! Shocking! Your elected representatives want the financial industry to continue ripping you off!
3. Ike Devji wrote a piece “Investment Fraud Red Flag for Physicians.” It is packed full of useful tips. I have one thing to add though, never work with a broker, regardless how clean his or her broker check record. These people are not legally obliged to watch out for your best interest.
4. A very succinct piece in Physicians’ Monday Digest about How Rising Interest Rates Would Affect You.
5. Taxpayers beware, AccountingToday has a piece on tax deductions expiring in 2014.
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