The Investment Scientist

What Warren Buffet has to say about market forecasts

Posted on: November 11, 2009

Warren Buffet

Being a financial advisor, I get asked to forecast the market all the time. I notice most other financial advisors would regurgitate the morning financial news and look really smart and up-to-date. I felt like I am the only one in my profession who doesn’t know what the market is going to do in the near future. So what a relief Warren Buffet threw me a life line like this one:

We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, (Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman) Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.

I am gonna print this quote on note cards and hand it to anyone who ask me to forecast the market again.

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2 Responses to "What Warren Buffet has to say about market forecasts"

You’re not the ONLY one who doesn’t know … It’s just the folks with the glass balls (not even crystal) feed the media and they in turn get lots of exposure.

Weather people are just as bad at predicting the future, and they gain the same celebrity status. It means nothing.


I got the chance to do the “glass ball” thing too, just couldn’t bring myself to do that.


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Michael Zhuang is principal of MZ Capital, a fee-only independent advisory firm based in Washington, DC.


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