The Investment Scientist

Only a fool invest without rules” – Jason Zweig

Young People

A client of mine asked me to teach his young son how to save and invest. The following are some rules I wrote down for him.

1. How much to save?

This is just a rule of thumb. If you start investing in your 20s, you need to put aside 10% of your income; if you start in your 30s, 15%; 40s, 20%, 50s, 25%.

The client’s son is a 26-year-old college grad, who is making about $48,000. Based on the rule of thumb, he needs to save $4,800 a year. That averages to $400 a month.

To make saving simple and painless, open a brokerage account, then set up an automatic bank payment of $400 a month to the account.

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Tax Form

Up until 2011, the burden for determining the cost basis of securities transactions for income tax purposes was shouldered by taxpayers.

In other words, the IRS was informed about how much investors sold securities for, but the tax agency relied on investors to provide the purchase prices.

Tax officials long suspected that many taxpayers overstated their cost basis in order to pay less tax. In response, the Treasury Department pushed for legislation that would require cost basis reporting by investment firms.

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Last year, while the S&P 500 was largely flat, small cap value and emerging markets were down significantly. No wonder some clients of mine got a bit edgy.

What a change one month has made! As of Feb. 5, these two asset classes have roared back with a vengeance. See the table below.

2012 Year to Feb 5th 2011
DFA US Small Cap Value 12.74% -9.74%
DFA Emerging Mkts Value 19.44% -26.50%
DFA Intl Small Cap Value 12.74% -19.41%

The lesson here: when we see big losses like -19%, -26%, we can view them as a financial Armageddon or as a buying opportunity. The latter position is mentally much harder to take, but it almost always pays off. 

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[Guest Post by Christopher Guest] There are ways a person could use the two year window provided in the Tax Compromise of 2010 to leverage a person’s gifting opportunities, reducing a person’s taxable estate. One strategy that can be used and would not consume any, or only minimally consume, your lifetime gift tax exemption is the Grantor Retained Annuity Trust, or “GRAT.” A GRAT is a form of irrevocable trust that allows the grantor to take a calculated risk to lower the grantor’s taxable estate.

The grantor transfers specific assets or property into the GRAT. The language in the GRAT stipulates that every year the grantor will receive a fixed payment, i.e. an annuity payment, back from the trust over a fixed number of years. A typically time period for a GRAT is 2 to 5 years. At the end of the term, the remainder beneficiaries get whatever is left. For gift tax purposes, the value of the gift is calculated on day one, when the trust is created and funded, but the gift value is discounted, as discussed below.

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Last month, I was approached by a plastic surgeon whose money was with Morgan Stanley Smith Barney. He was looking for someone who could beat the market: not just promise to beat the market, like his financial advisor, but actually deliver.

I told him that I can’t beat the market, I can only help him capture the market. I could see a wisp of disappointment flash across his face.

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Healthy Lifestyle

Longer life spans, rising medical costs, declining retiree medical coverage, and Medicare and Medicaid insolvency all add up to making health care costs a serious challenge for folks preparing for retirement.

According to Fidelity research, a couple retiring today at age 65 will need current savings of $200k to supplement Medicare and pay for out-of-pocket health care costs in retirement. In another five years time, the number could balloon to $275k. And that’s before we talk about long-term care.

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Financial Salesman

In an online forum, a doctor’s wife shared with me her story that should serve as a cautionary tale for all doctors.

Her husband had a solo medical practice. They had a “financial advisor” who advised them to put their saving into a $5mm cash value life insurance policy. They believed the product not only provided protection in the event of the doctor’s death but also was a great savings vehicle.

Last July, her husband was struck by an uninsured drunk driver. He suffered brain damage. Though he recovered from the coma, he was unable to practice medicine any more.

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I have a client (Let’s call him John) who retired 12 years ago from the government. He had a pension, and he had the option of taking out a lump sum of about $800k or drawing a monthly check of more than $4,400 per month until death.

Lost Retirement Money?

John took his options to his financial advisor from Smith Barney (now absorbed into Morgan Stanley Smith Barney.) Guess what the advisor recommended? He recommended that John take out the lump sum and let him manage it instead.

By the time John came to me for a second opinion financial review four years ago, his retirement account had only $265k left. John decided to become my client, and I have been able to restore some of his money, but not all.

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If you are new parents, you are busy nursing, changing diapers, and dealing with the emotional roller coaster of having a new life in your household. If you put your finances in backburner, I don’t blame you.

As a new parent and a financial advisor, I can offer you a few absolutely necessary to-do items to safeguard the financial well-being of your family and your new baby.

1. Have a will.

Now that you have a baby, you don’t just live for yourself any more. You have the responsibility of seeing your baby grow up. What happens if both you and your spouse die in an accident? If you don’t have a will, the court will determine the baby’s guardianship. Do you want to leave that decision to the court without your input? If you don’t, get a will.

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My investment approach can be summed up by three principles:

  1. Globally diversified
  2. Small cap value tilt
  3. Short duration tilt

This approach endured extraordinary challenges in 2011.

1. Globally diversified

Even though the US equity market largely ended up where it started, the global equity markets did a lot worse: the MSCI EAFA Index (world developed markets) dropped 15% and the MSCI Emerging Market Index dropped 20%. To the extent that your portfolio is globally diversified, it will suffer along with the rest of the world. Despite that, global diversification is still a sound principle. We should not regret just because the US market did better. In fact, the market that did the best last year was Venezuela; it went up 110%! Should we regret not concentrating on the Venezuela market? (The answer is no.)

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Saving for College

My son is 6 weeks old. Today, he received his social security card. The first thing I did for him after receiving the card was to open two Maryland 529 plan accounts for him: one with myself as the account holder, and the other with my wife.

In Maryland, the 529 plan deduction limit per parent per child is $2,500. So I put $2,500 into each of the accounts, for a total of $5,000. I invested the money for a target date 2030 fund since that’s the time my child will be of college age. I further set up an automatic contribution going forward: $2,500 will be deposited into each account every year.

Why I am doing this?

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A few days ago I got a call from someone who needs financial help. He is a typical middle class person, making a middle class wage, and has not saved a lot of money.

How Can I Help?

In the past, I would have gently turned him away: “Sir, my practice has a limited capacity of serving only 50 clients. To make the most of it, I only work with doctors and small business owners who have at least $500k in investable assets or a combined household income of $400k and above.”

Maybe it’s because of my newborn son’s sickness, but I did not say no this time. I took him through the discovery process to find out where he was financially, what he wanted to achieve, and how he planed to get there.

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Today is the last trading day of 2011. The S&P 500 closed at 1257, exactly the same close as in 2010! So, if your goal is wealth preservation, the market just did it for you.

Or did it?

From January to April, the market staged a four-month rally of 8.5% to peak at 1364 on April 29. For the next six months, it collapsed nearly 20% to bottom at 1098 on Oct. 3. Then, it staged a late rally to close the year at 1257.

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Last Monday, we took our newborn son to hospital for an MRI. He was found to have a lipoma corpus callosum, a very rare congenital tumor in the middle of his left and right brains.

Our pastor Lon Solomon has a daughter with brain damage. If it comes to that, we have an example to follow. Here is what he shared in Esquire magazine:

Jill was born perfectly normal. At three months she started having seizures, and they got worse. Eventually she lost the ability to speak. She’s probably had five thousand grand mals or more, and has serious brain injury. She’s sixteen now, and nonverbal. It took nine years, but finally the doctors figured out that she had mitochondrial disease. The mitochondria are the parts of your cells that produce energy, and hers don’t work right. Her brain doesn’t get enough energy. She used to have six or eight seizures a day. Once, she had nineteen. We never slept through the night.

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Author

Michael Zhuang is principal of MZ Capital, a fee-only independent advisory firm based in Washington, DC.

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