‘The Investment Scientist’ or ‘The Investment Fiduciary’: Help me Choose
Posted on: January 17, 2010
When I started this blog 30 months ago, my only goal was to disseminate the best investment research done in academia.
Much of the so-called investment research produced by the financial industry (aka Wall Street) and purveyed by the media is nothing more than advertisement in disguise. The truly rigorous and unbiased research is often done in the nation’s best universities, like Yale, Harvard, and the University of Chicago. This research is not accessible to the vast majority of investors who are not academically trained. My blog was meant to change that, thus the title “The Investment Scientist.”
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Boo-Yahhh
Never underestimate what a bull market could do to Jim Cramer. After shying from making any top picks for 2009, presumably because he didn’t see any stocks worthy of buying at the beginning of 2009, he is back to his own game with a vengeance this year. We’ll see if his 2010 picks below will turnout as dismal as his 2008 ones.
- Apple (AAPL)
- Google (GOOG)
- Crown Castle (CCI)
- American Tower (AMT)
- SBC Communications (SBC)
- Skyworks Solution (SWKS)
- Altera (ALTR)
- Cypress Semi (CY)
- Xilinx (XLNX)
- Amazon (AMZN)
- Cisco (CSCO)
- Electronic Arts (ERTS)
- Qualcomm (QCOM)
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How not to ruin a 60/40 portfolio
Posted on: January 6, 2010
This past Christmas, I had the distinct pleasure of calling several of my clients in retirement and telling them their portfolios are back to their pre-crisis level and their financial freedom is safe and sound.
Their portfolios are variations of the so-called 60/40 portfolio – about 60% in equity-like investments and 40% in bond-like ones.
Many other 60/40 portfolios have been decimated by this crisis. Even with recent gains, they are still far from recovering all their losses. How did I manage to pull even for my clients? There are a few key lessons I’d like to share.
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Harry Dent selling “The Great Depression Ahead”
I am exasperated. A client of mine just sent me Harry Dent’s latest book, The Great Depression Ahead, with a note. My client was absolutely convinced that the Dow will go down to 3,800, and he wanted me to do something to profit from this inevitability.
I don’t blame him. Dent is a brilliant man; he makes compelling arguments based on the demographic of aging baby boomers like my client, with just enough data and charts to make the book look authoritative. Couple that with a daily dose of bleak headlines:
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Professor James Poterba
MIT economics Prof. James Poterba has conducted very rigorous research on the subject of demographic trends and asset returns. His research examined the relationship between demographic structure and returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and stocks, using data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.
What he found?
From his research, Poterba concluded: “The empirical results suggest very little relationship between population age structure and asset returns.”
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Who are we? That’s the question many financial advisors have been asking themselves. I agree with Carl Richards when he says financial advisors have an identity crisis. Are we looking in the mirror each morning wondering who we are? Maybe not, but we do have a problem.
Let’s Confuse ‘Em
There are many so-called “financial advisors” that simply want to sell clients expensive products; and one of the ways to do that is to confuse the customer. Now, financial firms don’t actually have an official Customer Confusion Department, but they might as well have one. Case in point: We call ourselves “fee-only” advisors, hoping to differentiate from product pushers on commission; pretty soon, they re-brand themselves as “fee-based” advisors. How many people can actually tell the difference between a “fee-only” advisor and a “fee-based” one?
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French
Fama
In their seminal paper “The Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns,” Fama and French demonstrated
that value stocks had outperformed growth stocks in the U.S. markets since 1963 (when CRSP data became available). They called this phenomenon the Value Premium.
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Harvard University Endowment significantly increased its holding of Market Vector Russia, iShare Mexico and iPath India in third quarter of 2009.
Table: Top 10 holdings in Harvard University Endowment’s public portfolio
| Rank | Names | 9/30/09 (x1000sh) | 6/30/09 (x1000sh) | Change |
| 1 | iShares E. Mkt | 10298 | 9712 | +586 |
| 2 | iShares Brazil | 3355 | 3294 | +61 |
| 3 | iShares China | 4962 | 4178 | 784 |
| 4 | iShares S. Korea | 4127 | 4349 | -222 |
| 5 | iPath India | 1882 | 1388 | +494 |
| 6 | iShares S. Africa | 1624 | 1595 | +29 |
| 7 | iShares Taiwan | 7297 | 6836 | +461 |
| 8 | Mkt vector Russia | 2596 | 882 | +1714 |
| 9 | iShares Mexico | 1639 | 570 | +1069 |
| 10 | Vanguard E. Mkt | 1568 | 1758 | -190 |
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Warren Buffet
Being a financial advisor, I get asked to forecast the market all the time. I notice most other financial advisors would regurgitate the morning financial news and look really smart and up-to-date. I felt like I am the only one in my profession who doesn’t know what the market is going to do in the near future. So what a relief Warren Buffet threw me a life line like this one:
We have long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune-tellers look good. Even now, (Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman) Charlie (Munger) and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.
I am gonna print this quote on note cards and hand it to anyone who ask me to forecast the market again.
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This is a story shared with me by Larry Swedroe …
In 1959 Harry Roberts, of the University of Chicago, had a computer generate a series of random numbers that would have a distribution matching the average weekly price change of the average stock (about 2 percent). Since the numbers were randomly generated, there was no pattern and therefore no knowledge that could be obtained by studying a chart of this nature. In order to create the illusion that his charts were those of particular stocks, Roberts placed a starting price of $40 on each chart. He then took a group of these charts to the leading technical analysts of his day. He asked for their advice on whether to buy or sell these unnamed hypothetical stocks. He told them that he did not want them to know the name of the stock since this knowledge might bias them. Each technical analyst had very strong advice on what Roberts should do but since the numbers were randomly generated the patterns were only in the minds of the observers. I am sure that you will never hear about this story from a technical analyst.
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Lack of time
“Life is short, time is never enough!” lamented a lawyer client of mine. With intense pressure to meet billable hour requirements, some attorneys don’t even have time for their spouse and children, let alone their personal finances. It also doesn’t help that the financial world is becoming increasingly complex.
Professional stress
Believe it or not, law practice is one of the most stressful jobs – despite the great pay. No other job is as focused on the adversarial aspect of life as law practice. Martin Seligman’s research shows that 52% of lawyers are unhappy. When people are stressed and unhappy, they can’t do proper financial planning.
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Beyond the S&P 500
Posted on: November 4, 2009
If you are like most investors, your equity portfolio will have a few auspiciously named stock funds and a few company stocks you feel comfortable with. You think you are well-diversified, but you really are only investing in the universe of the S&P 500 – the largest 500 stocks of the US equity market.
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Can experts predict the future?
Posted on: October 28, 2009
“When the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into a ditch.” – Old Proverb.
In July 2007, I went to an event where the keynote speaker was a former Federal Reserve Board governor who had worked with Alan Greenspan for many years.
I had had a hunch since early 2006 that the housing bubble would end badly. However, the market had proven me wrong month after month. Bewildered, I felt an expert of that caliber could help prove or disprove my hunch once and for all.
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The Significance of Dow 10,000
Posted on: October 15, 2009
“It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” – Shakespeare
Yesterday, the Dow passed 10,000 again. Predictably, the press kicked up a big storm about it.
Even a relatively unknown like me got a call from a major newspaper asking me to comment whether this was a sign that the market would keep going up. I really struggled to answer. I knew that if I could spin a good story, the reporter would come back to me for more and more comments. Pretty soon, I would look like a stock market guru to my clients and prospects. This would surely be a win-win for me and the newspaper – if only I could bring myself to pretend.
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“The recession is very likely over.” – Fed Chairman Bernanke on 9/15/09.
What does the fed chairman’s statement mean for stocks, if indeed the worst recession since 1929 is over? We don’t know for sure. We can, however, let history be our guide.
In this spirit, I studied the one-year and three-year returns of the S&P 500 Index and the Fama/French Small Cap Value Index coming out of a recession for the nine recessions since 1950.
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My friend Carl Richards made an interesting observation in his last post:
Just when we need something to zig, they all zagged together!
Some people draw the conclusion that diversification no longer works. I strongly disagree.
The Investment Scientist 