The Investment Scientist

Posts Tagged ‘harry dent

Harry Dent Great Depression

Harry Dent selling "The Great Depression Ahead"

I am exasperated. A client of mine just sent me Harry Dent’s latest book, The Great Depression Ahead, with a note. My client was absolutely convinced that the Dow will go down to 3,800, and he wanted me to do something to profit from this inevitability.

I don’t blame him. Dent is a brilliant man; he makes compelling arguments based on the demographic of aging baby boomers like my client, with just enough data and charts to make the book look authoritative. Couple that with a daily dose of bleak headlines:

Professor James Poterba

MIT economics Prof. James Poterba has conducted very rigorous research on the subject of demographic trends and asset returns. His research examined the relationship between demographic structure and returns on Treasury bills, long-term government bonds, and stocks, using data from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom.

What he found?

From his research, Poterba concluded: “The empirical results suggest very little relationship between population age structure and asset returns.”

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Michael Zhuang is principal of MZ Capital, a fee-only independent advisory firm based in Washington, DC.

Twitter: @mzhuang

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