The Investment Scientist

Posts Tagged ‘stock market performance

My name is Dow. I was born in May 1896 to my father Charles Dow.

In 1900/1/1, I was 66. No, that was not my age, but my level.  People care about my level since the higher it goes, the richer they get.

In the first two decades of the 20th century, I wobbled around: 100% up and 50% down was the norm of the decades. Nevertheless, I ended the two decades at 108.

Dow 1900-1920

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After the election of Barak Obama as our next president last night, I did an exercise to find out the historical stock market performance under a Democratic vs. Republican administration since 1900.

My examination showed that the view that a  Democratic president is bad for the market is unfounded. In three important measurements: S&P 500 return, dividend growth and earning growth, stocks have done better under a Democrat administration.

However, the notion that a Democrat is bad for inflation does ring truth, as evident by the 4.8% inflation rate under a Democratic White House compared to the 2% under a Republican one.

S&P 500 return Dividend growth Earning growth Inflation
Democrat 8.1% 5.6% 10.6% 4.8%
Republican 6% 5% 5.7% 2%

Data source: Yale University Professor Robert Shiller’s database

My next exercise is to find out how the market performed during periods of Democratic control of both the White House and Congress. Sign up for my newsletter to get this information.


Author

Michael Zhuang is principal of MZ Capital, a fee-only independent advisory firm based in Washington, DC.

Twitter: @mzhuang

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