It has been one year since Facebook IPO. Most of my top 10 reasons last year arguing against buying FB stocks are still true today. Remember the hype leading up to the IPO, then ponder this line of mine: “The more successful the Wall Street money machine is, the less likely you will get rich.”
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坚强点
1. Facebook is a great service to help you keep in touch with friends and family. But a great service does not equal great investment.
2. When was the last time you clicked on a Facebook ad? I can’t recall when I ever did. The click-through rate for Facebook ads is 10% that for Google ads, for good reason. Google ads are delivered at the moment you have actionable intent, while Facebook ads are delivered when you don’t want any distraction.
3. As more and more people use mobile devices to access Facebook, this will present a big challenge since it is nearly impossible to display distracting ads on tiny mobile screens.
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New York Stock Exchange
Recently, I got a call from a physician client of mine who asked a fantastic question. The Shiller PE of the S&P 500 index is at 24 now, much higher than the historical mean of 16 – is the market headed for a fall?
What is the Shiller PE?
This is a stock market metric invented by Yale Professor Robert Shiller. Basically, it is the average of the PE ratios of ten consecutive years. Because of that, Shiller PE is also called PE10.
Professor Shiller found it to be a reasonably good measure of valuation of the whole market: the higher the Shiller PE, the more expensive the market.
Back to my client’s question, I told him right away that I don’t know the answer. I don’t make investment decision based on opinion. I have to research historical data. After I hung up the phone, I asked my assistant to study the relationship between the Shiller PE and forward one-year and forward three-year returns.
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Tax Strategy for Entreprenuers before They Sell their Business: Donor Advised Fund
Posted on: May 14, 2013
Tax planning tips
Last week, I went to a luncheon seminar hosted by Fidelity Charitables, a division of my custodian company Fidelity Investments.
I went there because 30% of my clients are business owners. I know that one-third of them have strong charitable intent, and helping them do well by doing good is part of my responsibility.
Part of the dilemma of successful business owners who have charitable intent is this: They make a lot of money when they are running their business, and especially at the time they sell their business. But they give away their money to the causes they care about usually in retirement when they do not have as much income to write off. Without careful charitable planning, they will end up paying a lot more in taxes and have a lot less to give to charity.
Here comes the rescue plan: Donor Advised Fund (DAF).
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Morgan Stanley Smith Barney
Last weekend, I went to New Jersey to meet a potential client who is an executive at a pharmaceutical company.
He told me that, as part of the executive benefit package, the company refers executives to Morgan Stanley where they get “free” financial advice. I smirked and said: “Well, we will find out how free it is. One thing I know, though, Wall Street firms are not known for charity.”
It turns out that Morgan Stanley advised him to open several, separately managed accounts (SMA), each with a management fee of 1.5%. The reason for the multiple accounts?
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10. Why Asset Class Diversification is Superior
9. Are Financial Advisors Required to Disclose Fees?
8. Lessons learned from three prospective clients
7. How Often Do Market Corrections Happen?
6. Physicians: Qualified Retirement Plan for Asset Protection
5. Variable Annuity Fees You Don’t Know You are Paying
3. Profit from Harry Dent’s predictions? Think again
2. The High Cost of Fee-based Financial Advisors
1. Be Careful When Buying a Condo as a Rental Property
Also see Top 10 in February.
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I met with three prospective clients on my trip to Los Angeles last week. I did a quick financial review with each one of them and gathered some lessons learned as well.
Prospective client A is a physician in his late 60s. He has already reached retirement age but he needs to keep working since he has less than $1mm saved for his retirement.
All that money is in tax deferred accounts, meaning far less than $1mm is available for his retirement. This is NOT retirement security.
Client A is not an extravagant person, so why is he in such dire straits?
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Medicine is a profession fraught with legal risk. According to an AMA survey for the period 2007-2008, for every 100 doctors, there were 95 lawsuits.
The survey also reveals that physicians 55 years and older are eight times more likely to get sued than physicians 40 years and younger.
Not that they make eight times more medical errors, just that they are richer lawsuit bait.
That reminds me of a joke. Why won’t a shark attack a lawyer? Professional courtesy.
Back to the topic at hand, many physicians in solo or small practice simply use a SEP IRA as their retirement plan. It is very simple to set up, and the contribution limit is a generous 25% of earned income or an annual limit of $49,000. What is there not to like about it?
Click to get my white paper Wealth Management Guide for Physicians.
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Bullet train
I just came back from a long trip in China and Taiwan. During the trip, what impressed me the most was China’s bullet train. We rode the longest high-speed rail line in the world – Beijing to Guangzhou – which started services only a few months ago.
The train is futuristic, comfortable and extremely smooth. Zipping at speed of 300 km/h or about 190 mph, the water in my glass sitting on the table stayed still.
With such a speed, one could travel from New York City to Washington DC in one hour and 15 minutes, or from New York City to Chicago in three and a half hours. High-speed rail truly shrinks the country.
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New York Stock Exchange
The S&P 500 closed the first quarter at a record high. Should that worry investors? The short answer is, No.
When the market was 30% below the high three years ago, I did some research. I categorized all market conditions into:
1. Breaking a new high.
2. Less than 10% below historical high.
3. Between 10% and 20% below historical high.
4. Between 20% and 30% below historical high.
5. Between 30% and 40% below historical high.
6. More than 40% below historical high.
Then I calculated the one year forward returns of the six conditions.
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10. January Barometer Effect: What Will the Stock Market Do for the Rest of 2013?
9. Email Scam Targets Financial Advisor Clients
8. Why Asset Class Diversification is Superior
7. How Often Do Market Corrections Happen?
6. Variable Annuity Fees You Don’t Know You are Paying
4. Profit from Harry Dent’s predictions? Think again
3. The High Cost of Fee-based Financial Advisors
1. Be Careful When Buying a Condo as a Rental Property
Also see Top 10 last month.
Get my white paper: The Informed Investor: 5 Key Concepts for Financial Success.
Get informed about wealth building, sign up for The Investment Scientist newsletter
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What fills up your tank?
Posted on: February 28, 2013
How Can I Help?
“What makes you smile every day? What fills up your tank?”
These are questions a friend of mine asked me recently. For my wife, it is hosting dinner parties. She loves seeing people come together and enjoys conversations with friends. She does this almost every week now. It is also a great way for me to see her doing the thing she loves.
For me, it is learning improv and performing comedy on stage. English is not my first language, and I never thought I could do that. Now, I regularly go on stage to make people laugh.
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House for sale
Recently, a client called to tell me that he had finally got the big boulder off his back, and it was such a relief for him.
The “big boulder” he referred to was his big house, with a swimming pool and a tennis court. The house had been costing him $100k a year in property taxes and upkeep, more than 50% of my client’s retirement income. No wonder he called it a big boulder on his back.
He bought the house 25 years ago for $2.2mm, and he just sold it for $2.1mm. After all the costs associated with selling the house, he took home $2mm and change.
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January Barometer Effect: What Will the Stock Market Do for the Rest of 2013?
Posted on: February 7, 2013
New York Stock Exchange
With the market up about 5% in January, a prospective client of mine called to let me know he is not going to invest in stocks at this time – in fact, he is going to pull all of his money out of the market.
This may not be the best course of action for him.
According to research done by Cooper and McConnell, what the market does in January has a strong predictive power for what the market will do for the rest of the year.
Using data since 1940, they found that if the market is up in January, it will rise an additional 14.8% for the rest of the year; if the market is down in January, it will rise only 2.92% for the rest of the year. This gives rise to a spread of almost 12%, a highly statistically significant number.
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Email scam
I recently received an email from a client of mine. The mail contained only one line: “What’s the balance of my account?”
“It’s $978k as of close of yesterday,” I replied.
“I need $500k for a business transaction,” my client responded.
I went into an explanation of the tax consequence of selling long-held investments to fund a business transaction, but my client insisted that he needed the money urgently. So I emailed him: “send me your wire instruction, and I will make sure the money will be in your account tomorrow.”
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10. How Often Do Market Corrections Happen?
9. Why Asset Class Diversification is Superior
8. Small Business 401k, Big Plan Fees
6. An Investment Rule for Young People
5. Fiscal Cliff Deal: What does it mean for high income/high net-worth families?
4. Roth Conversion Decision Framework
3. Profit from Harry Dent’s predictions? Think again
2. Be Careful When Buying a Condo as a Rental Property
1. The High Cost of Fee-based Financial Advisors
Also see Top 10 last month.
Get my white paper: The Informed Investor: 5 Key Concepts for Financial Success.
Get informed about wealth building, sign up for The Investment Scientist newsletter
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Oil and Gas Investment Scam
In the last month alone, I’ve gotten calls from two clients asking me if they should invest in tax advantaged oil and gas investments being pitched to them? Both of these clients are physicians.
The pitch is that oil and gas investments are like IRA accounts, but without the contribution limit. Whatever amount you invest can be written off right away.
The pitch is quite alluring to high-income professionals like physicians who are facing higher taxation. But it sounds too good to be true, so I did a study.
It turns out what is being pitched as “tax advantaged” is in fact the riskiest part of an oil and gas investment.
The Investment Scientist 