New York Stock Exchange
Recently, I got a call from a physician client of mine who asked a fantastic question. The Shiller PE of the S&P 500 index is at 24 now, much higher than the historical mean of 16 – is the market headed for a fall?
What is the Shiller PE?
This is a stock market metric invented by Yale Professor Robert Shiller. Basically, it is the average of the PE ratios of ten consecutive years. Because of that, Shiller PE is also called PE10.
Professor Shiller found it to be a reasonably good measure of valuation of the whole market: the higher the Shiller PE, the more expensive the market.
Back to my client’s question, I told him right away that I don’t know the answer. I don’t make investment decision based on opinion. I have to research historical data. After I hung up the phone, I asked my assistant to study the relationship between the Shiller PE and forward one-year and forward three-year returns.
Tax Strategy for Entreprenuers before They Sell their Business: Donor Advised Fund
Posted on: May 14, 2013
Tax planning tips
Last week, I went to a luncheon seminar hosted by Fidelity Charitables, a division of my custodian company Fidelity Investments.
I went there because 30% of my clients are business owners. I know that one-third of them have strong charitable intent, and helping them do well by doing good is part of my responsibility.
Part of the dilemma of successful business owners who have charitable intent is this: They make a lot of money when they are running their business, and especially at the time they sell their business. But they give away their money to the causes they care about usually in retirement when they do not have as much income to write off. Without careful charitable planning, they will end up paying a lot more in taxes and have a lot less to give to charity.
Here comes the rescue plan: Donor Advised Fund (DAF).
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney
Last weekend, I went to New Jersey to meet a potential client who is an executive at a pharmaceutical company.
He told me that, as part of the executive benefit package, the company refers executives to Morgan Stanley where they get “free” financial advice. I smirked and said: “Well, we will find out how free it is. One thing I know, though, Wall Street firms are not known for charity.”
It turns out that Morgan Stanley advised him to open several, separately managed accounts (SMA), each with a management fee of 1.5%. The reason for the multiple accounts?
10. Why Asset Class Diversification is Superior
9. Are Financial Advisors Required to Disclose Fees?
8. Lessons learned from three prospective clients
7. How Often Do Market Corrections Happen?
6. Physicians: Qualified Retirement Plan for Asset Protection
5. Variable Annuity Fees You Don’t Know You are Paying
3. Profit from Harry Dent’s predictions? Think again
2. The High Cost of Fee-based Financial Advisors
1. Be Careful When Buying a Condo as a Rental Property
Also see Top 10 in February.
Get my white paper: The Informed Investor: 5 Key Concepts for Financial Success.
I met with three prospective clients on my trip to Los Angeles last week. I did a quick financial review with each one of them and gathered some lessons learned as well.
Prospective client A is a physician in his late 60s. He has already reached retirement age but he needs to keep working since he has less than $1mm saved for his retirement.
All that money is in tax deferred accounts, meaning far less than $1mm is available for his retirement. This is NOT retirement security.
Client A is not an extravagant person, so why is he in such dire straits?
Medicine is a profession fraught with legal risk. According to an AMA survey for the period 2007-2008, for every 100 doctors, there were 95 lawsuits.
The survey also reveals that physicians 55 years and older are eight times more likely to get sued than physicians 40 years and younger.
Not that they make eight times more medical errors, just that they are richer lawsuit bait.
That reminds me of a joke. Why won’t a shark attack a lawyer? Professional courtesy.
Back to the topic at hand, many physicians in solo or small practice simply use a SEP IRA as their retirement plan. It is very simple to set up, and the contribution limit is a generous 25% of earned income or an annual limit of $49,000. What is there not to like about it?
Click to get my white paper Wealth Management Guide for Physicians.
Bullet train
I just came back from a long trip in China and Taiwan. During the trip, what impressed me the most was China’s bullet train. We rode the longest high-speed rail line in the world – Beijing to Guangzhou – which started services only a few months ago.
The train is futuristic, comfortable and extremely smooth. Zipping at speed of 300 km/h or about 190 mph, the water in my glass sitting on the table stayed still.
With such a speed, one could travel from New York City to Washington DC in one hour and 15 minutes, or from New York City to Chicago in three and a half hours. High-speed rail truly shrinks the country.
