I asked my assistant to do an updated stock market seasonality study.
The data we used was the S&P 500 index from 1927 which we found in Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller’s database.
We assumed that at the beginning of each year we invested $1 in the index, and we observed how the investment fluctuated over the year. Then we took the average over three different periods of time: the last 20 years, the last 50 years, and the last 86 years.
Here is the chart we got: Read the rest of this entry »
Some of you may have already known that my hobby is improv comedy. Here is what happens during a performance. I go on stage with my fellow actors, we ask for a suggestion from the audience, and then we create a comedy play from scratch using that suggestion.
It just so turns out that many lessons I learn in improv are totally applicable to real life. Since after all, life is a just a big improv show. Nobody wakes up with a script in hand for how to live the day.
So allow me to summarize the top three lessons I’ve learned.
- First things first; be a great listener.
Yesterday I received an email from a doctor client of mine telling me how he had a conversation with some fellow doctors, and all of them are pulling their money out of stocks because they feel that with the market breaking new high after new high, a crash is imminent. He wanted my opinion.
First of all, while all of his doctor friends might feel a market crash is imminent and certain, there is simply no such thing as certainty in the stock market. All we can work with are odds. The following are the odds of market corrections:
|Magnitude of market decline||Frequency of occurrence (out of 64 years from 1950-2013)|
|>5%||Every year (94%)|
|>10%||Every two years (58%)|
|>20%||Every five years (20%)|
|>30%||Every ten years (10%)|
|>40%||Every fifty years (2%)|
My study also shows that the market breaking a new high does not substantially change the odds of returns. In other words, the odds of the market dropping over 20% in the next twelve months are still about one in five; the odds of the market dropping over 30% in the next twelve months are still about one in ten.
Read the rest of this entry »
Financial author Allan Roth once wrote an article called “Investment Trick – Annuity Style” where he asks a rhetorical question, “If the S&P 500’s total return is 12% in a given year, what do you think your equity index annuity (that is supposed to track the S&P 500) would return”?
Allan Roth goes on to explain why the correct answer is 3.4%. Boy, was he wrong! Read the rest of this entry »
Recently, we took the money out in favor of a better investment, and boy was she in for a shock! There was a $17k surrender charge and nearly $3.6k in tax withholdings. All the interest she supposedly earned in the annuity went to the surrender charges, and now she has to pay income taxes on that interest!
Here is why a fixed rate annuity is nothing like a savings account.
1. A savings account is FDIC guaranteed, in other words, it has the full faith and credit of the US government behind it. A fixed rate annuity is NOT FDIC guaranteed, it only has the credit of the issuing company behind it. Think AIG! Read the rest of this entry »
Many people keep their bad annuity investment because it imposes a stiff surrender charge. This is a stereotypical example of sunk cost fallacy, an academic term which describes people throwing good money after bad.
Why surrender charges are sunk costs?
Imagine you were sold a $100k variable annuity with a ten year surrender period. The agent who sold you the contract collected a 10% commission, or $10,000. Where do you think this money came from?
Bingo! Your pocket. I hate to break it to you, but insurance companies are not in the charity business and they sure as heck aren’t gonna tell you that 10 of the 100Gs you just handed over to them are going to pay the agent’s commission! If they did that you’d pull your money out and rightly avoid them like the plague in the future.
Recently I was approached by two prospective clients. The husband is a very successful entrepreneur and they are also very frugal. As the result of that, they have accumulated substantial wealth – north of $5mm.
The only problem? all of that money is in about 28 variable annuities they purchased over the years. In examining these variable annuities, I turned up the following problems:
1. Horrible returns
For each variable annuity, I was able to calculate its annualized return.
Out of the 28 variable annuities, only two have annualized returns above 4%. Seven have annualized returns between 3% and 4%. Six have annualized returns between 2% and 3%. The rest (13 of them) have returns less than 2% including a few that have negative returns. The average annualized return? 2.12%. Not enough to beat inflation!
2. Horrible surrender charges
There is this one annuity they purchased from Jackson National Life in 2007 for $200k; today it has grown to a “value” of $245k, but if they should cash it out, they would only get $221k since there is a surrender charge of $24k. After seven years, there is still a surrender charge of 12%! This is just horrible! Read the rest of this entry »