A story Technical Analysts won’t tell you
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: November 9, 2009
This is a story shared with me by Larry Swedroe …
In 1959 Harry Roberts, of the University of Chicago, had a computer generate a series of random numbers that would have a distribution matching the average weekly price change of the average stock (about 2 percent). Since the numbers were randomly generated, there was no pattern and therefore no knowledge that could be obtained by studying a chart of this nature. In order to create the illusion that his charts were those of particular stocks, Roberts placed a starting price of $40 on each chart. He then took a group of these charts to the leading technical analysts of his day. He asked for their advice on whether to buy or sell these unnamed hypothetical stocks. He told them that he did not want them to know the name of the stock since this knowledge might bias them. Each technical analyst had very strong advice on what Roberts should do but since the numbers were randomly generated the patterns were only in the minds of the observers. I am sure that you will never hear about this story from a technical analyst.
Why attorneys need financial help?
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: November 6, 2009
Lack of time
“Life is short, time is never enough!” lamented a lawyer client of mine. With intense pressure to meet billable hour requirements, some attorneys don’t even have time for their spouse and children, let alone their personal finances. It also doesn’t help that the financial world is becoming increasingly complex.
Professional stress
Believe it or not, law practice is one of the most stressful jobs – despite the great pay. No other job is as focused on the adversarial aspect of life as law practice. Martin Seligman’s research shows that 52% of lawyers are unhappy. When people are stressed and unhappy, they can’t do proper financial planning.
Beyond the S&P 500
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: November 4, 2009
If you are like most investors, your equity portfolio will have a few auspiciously named stock funds and a few company stocks you feel comfortable with. You think you are well-diversified, but you really are only investing in the universe of the S&P 500 – the largest 500 stocks of the US equity market.
Can experts predict the future?
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: October 28, 2009
“When the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into a ditch.” - Old Proverb.
In July 2007, I went to an event where the keynote speaker was a former Federal Reserve Board governor who had worked with Alan Greenspan for many years.
I had had a hunch since early 2006 that the housing bubble would end badly. However, the market had proven me wrong month after month. Bewildered, I felt an expert of that caliber could help prove or disprove my hunch once and for all.
The Significance of Dow 10,000
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: October 15, 2009
“It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” – Shakespeare
Yesterday, the Dow passed 10,000 again. Predictably, the press kicked up a big storm about it.
Even a relatively unknown like me got a call from a major newspaper asking me to comment whether this was a sign that the market would keep going up. I really struggled to answer. I knew that if I could spin a good story, the reporter would come back to me for more and more comments. Pretty soon, I would look like a stock market guru to my clients and prospects. This would surely be a win-win for me and the newspaper – if only I could bring myself to pretend.
How have stocks performed coming out of a recession
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: September 30, 2009
“The recession is very likely over.” – Fed Chairman Bernanke on 9/15/09.
What does the fed chairman’s statement mean for stocks, if indeed the worst recession since 1929 is over? We don’t know for sure. We can, however, let history be our guide.
In this spirit, I studied the one-year and three-year returns of the S&P 500 Index and the Fama/French Small Cap Value Index coming out of a recession for the nine recessions since 1950.
Why did correlations go to one?
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: September 24, 2009
My friend Carl Richards made an interesting observation in his last post:
Just when we need something to zig, they all zagged together!
Some people draw the conclusion that diversification no longer works. I strongly disagree.
Roth conversion: the greatest tax break you don’t know you have
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: September 2, 2009
Starting from tax year 2010, the Tax Reconciliation Act permits all taxpayers to make Roth IRA conversions, regardless of income level. Previously, taxpayers with a modified adjusted gross income of $100,000 (or more) were not permitted to make Roth IRA conversions.
With a stroke of the pen, many affluent Americans can increase their wealth by 10-20% in their lifetime. If circumstances are right, they may even double their wealth for their family.
In the mind of an investor
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: August 31, 2009
Found this chart on digg.com … don’t know who to give credit to. Whoever drew this is brilliant.
Top ten holdings in Harvard Endowment’s public equity portfolio
Posted by: investment-fiduciary on: August 18, 2009
Harvard University Endowment significantly increased its holding of iShare S. Korea, iShare Taiwan and iPath India in second quarter of 2009.
Table: Top 10 holdings in Harvard University Endowment’s public portfolio
| Rank | Names | 3/31/09 (x1000sh) | 6/30/09 (x1000sh) | Change |
| 1 | iShares E. Mkt | 8276 | 9712 | +1436 |
| 2 | iShares Brazil | 3170 | 3294 | +124 |
| 3 | iShares China | 3162 | 4178 | +1016 |
| 4 | iShares S. Korea | 1737 | 4349 | +2612 |
| 5 | iShares S. Africa | 1222 | 1595 | 373 |
| 6 | iShares Taiwan | 0 | 6836 | New |
| 7 | iPath India | 446 | 1388 | +942 |
| 8 | iShares Mexico | 1380 | 570 | -810 |
| 9 | Vanguard E. Mkt | 2289 | 1758 | -531 |
| 10 | Market Vectors Russia | 1762 | 882 | -880 |
| Drop | China Mobile | 376 | 459 | +83 |
| Drop | Stoneleigh Partners | 2626 | 0 | Sold Out |
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